Election Fever!

I thought I would say something about the upcoming Welsh Assembly Elections on May 3rd. So I go through each of the parties running and then give my prediction for the results.

Labour

Lets start with the current champions then. Now I have to admit that Labour have a good record in Swansea West, as Andrew Davies' leaflet is quick to point out. However, they seem to be short on what they will do next in Wales. Labour do strike me as a party that has run out of ideas and most policies and pledges are made as a reaction to something in the media, which is not good. They also keep harking back to the Tories in the 80's as well, pretty much trying to give the impression that not voting Labour will let the Tories in and that is a fate worse than death. This, I think, is what puts a lot of young people off voting. An 18 year old at this election would have been born in 1989 which is towards the end of Thatcher's government and so they wouldn't know much (probably nothing) about what it was like. I was born in 1984 and I only know about what Thatcher did because I studied Politics. This card is getting very old now, especially as Labour have been in power for ten years now (in Parliament, 8 years in the Assembly) and they are pretty much the party in power that a lot of young people have grown up with.

Conservative

Still desperate to distance themselves from the 80's (what with their new scribbly tree symbol) the Tories seem to emphisising the NHS in their campaign. It's the usual promises of shorter waiting lists and better access to drugs (that could be taken the wrong way!), with some newer ones like nurse led walk in centres. Not much on how they expect to fund all that mind. I do think the Tories have dropped a bit of a clanger by not putting welsh on their leaflets (well they haven't in Swansea, perhaps they have made welsh leaflets for the more welsh speaking areas?) which could emphisise the belief that they are an English party with only English interests. If I'm honest I don't think they stand a chance in Wales, even though they seem to think they do.

Liberal Democrats

The Liberals are still trying to woo disaffected Labour voters by basically saying they opposed all Labour's unpopular decesions (like the War in Iraq and Top Up fees). This approach may be working in part but more because unhappy Labour supporters can't bring themselves to vote Tory. The Lib Dems are the party in power in Swansea Council but they seem to be making a hash of it and this may put people off voting for them (in Swansea anyway). They will probably make a strong showing in these elections but not depose Labour.

Plaid

The new look Plaid are (as far as I can tell) the only party who have put out some clear aims and policies on their election leaflet and not just a load of Labour bashing. This is refreshing because you know what you are getting if you vote for them. The focus on a local issue (in Swansea's case it's the Morriston Neurosurgery unit closure) is also a good move in my opinion. What is conspicous by its absence is the policy to make the Assembly a Parliament. They do still hold to this policy, however, and it is this that is what could agian hurt them in these elections. Nevertheless, they do do well in Assembly elections, coming second in the last two.

What is funny about the Tory, Lib Dem, and Plaid leaflets is that they all claim to be the party in second place! They all have similar, wildly disproportionate bar graphs but the sources of the data are different. The Tories use the results of an ITV poll, Lib Dems use the 2005 General election results and Plaid use the last two Assembly elections. They all look a bit silly really.

Just a quick note on BNP and UKIP. These 'one issue' parties are still banging the same drums. BNP think they will solve all our problems by kicking out all the immigrants and UKIP think they will solve all our problems by leaving the EU. Thing is if either were to gain power and do that you are left asking "and then what?" It's parties like these that show the importance of voting because if you don't then these morons could get in.


Finally, here is what I think the results will turn out like:

1st- Labour
2nd- Plaid
3rd- Lib Dems
4th- Conservatives
nowhere- BNP and UKIP


Basically, Labour will win because the other 3 parties will all beat each other, each one picking up a few of the disalusioned former Labour voters. It will be close mind.

So there we are, my thoughts on the upcoming elections. Well done for making it this far (bit of a long one- sorry) and I'm now eagerly waiting for May 3rd to see if my predictions are correct. Happy voting!